Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT`S BUT STILL EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. TUESDAY WILL BE A DAY WITH THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE TO HELP WARM THE REGION INTO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME STRONGER COLD ADVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS A LARGE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. AS THE UPPER TROF WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND OF HIGH AMPLITUDE...THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP OUR REGION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE STORM WITH MAINLY LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THE MODELS DO SHOW A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS RIGHT NOW TO KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE ALL RAIN FOR NOW. IT IS EXPECTED THOUGH...THAT SINCE THE COLD AIR REALLY WON`T BE ENTRENCHED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY THAT ANY CHANCE FOR A SLEET PELLET OR SNOW FLAKE WOULD TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER IN A LONG SERIES OF ARCTIC OUTBREAKS TO THE SOUTH. WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL INDICATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. IN ANY EVENT...THIS SHOWS LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 20S IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. OF COURSE...EVEN MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.


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