Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT OUR UNUSUALLY COLD WINTER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP EARLY THURS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FRI MORNING WHEN A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A WEAK GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE GFS...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS...FORECAST PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND WETBULB TEMPERATURE PROFILES THAT COULD SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (I-10 NORTHWARD). SO MUCH DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW THAT WE WANT TO SEE CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS BEFORE ADDING THIS TO OUR FORECAST. FOR NOW WE ADJUSTED OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO THAT NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT MORNING...EVEN THOUGH THE GFS MOS FORECASTS FREEZING TEMPERATURES. YET ANOTHER GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ONCE AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO THE FEB 10 SNOW STORM. UNLESS THE MODEL RUNS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST COULD BE VERY INTERESTING.


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