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Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

DISCUSSION...00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS STILL RELATIVELY TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WINDS STILL GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING THROUGH THE 40S WITH A FEW SITES ALREADY INTO THE MID 30S. UPPER AIR DATA FROM 00 UTC SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORT IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY FORCING THIS EVENING FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCALLY...OUR AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY...THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. THIS COULD BE DIFFICULT WITH THE LIKELY INCREASING WINDS AND THE CLOUD COVER JUST A FEW HOURS AWAY. THOUGH THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE NEAREST UPSTREAM OBSERVATION THIS EVENING REPORTING SNOW IS AT BIRMINGHAM. THE MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES) WOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON. SO...DON`T SEE ANY REASON TO ADD MENTION OF ANY PRECIP TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISING TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES AS THE VORT MAX SLIDES BY ABOUT 06Z. WILL MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND LIKELY MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.


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