Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER NERN MX IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW THEN EMERGES INTO THE WRN GOMEX THURSDAY NIGHT AND RACES EWD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA. BIG QUESTION WITH THIS GULF LOW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE OVER THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. THE 08/00 UTC GFS 850 TEMPS DIP TO -2 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES DOWN TO 5370 M FRIDAY. THE 07/12 UTC EURO IS A TAD COLDER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN THE GFS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 08/00 UTC EURO...CONFIDENCE IMPROVES TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. REGARDLESS ...IT WILL BE COLD AND RAW DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PRECIP ENDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GULF LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXIT THE SE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST THEN BUILDS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES LATE SUNDAY OVER NRN MX AND TRACKS EWD INTO THE GOMEX...BUT IS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN ITS PREDECESSOR.


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