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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AS PREVIOUS LOW PUSHED POLAR AIR WELL SWD INTO SRN GULF LIMITING ANY MOISTURE RECOVERY. SO... INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN WARM SECTOR BEHIND WARM FRONT. LOCAL CONFIDENCE THUNDER TOOL SHOWS BEST CHANCES (ALBEIT AOB 15 PERCENT) WILL BE OVER PANHANDLE WATERS AND ADJACENT COAST 12Z-18Z TUES OTHERWISE NIL CHANCES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WHICH IS PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL RIVER SYSTEM. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A STRONG POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES WILL SUPPORT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND BRISK NW WINDS USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. GOOD RADIATION COOLING WED NIGHT WILL FAVOR A LIGHT FREEZE.


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