WTVY  | Dothan, AL  | News, Weather, Sports

Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT SWINGS NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND PHASES WITH SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY EWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD OVER THE NWRN GULF AND THEN TRACK NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST THU AND FRI BEFORE ENERGY TRANSFERS TO AN ATLANTIC SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST AND MOST NLY OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...BRINGING IT ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES EARLY FRI. THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT AND THE NAM SLOWER STILL. WIND FIELDS IN THIS FORECAST WILL MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE NAM. RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP. TWEAKED MOS POPS TO BLEND IN THE LOCAL WRF SOLUTION AND WE SHOW 30-40 POPS N AND W OF A LINE FROM VLD-TLH-AAF. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY NE TO CHANCE FROM VLD-TLH-PFN ON THU. WE BEGIN TO INTRODUCE TS LATE THU NIGHT. SURFACE BASED CAPE REMAINS ENTIRELY OFFSHORE AND THE SHOWALTER INDEX IS NEGATIVE...SO ANY CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS WILL BE ELEVATED AND THE SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL. HOWEVER...OVER THE GULF WATERS...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE BOARD ON FRI WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN FRI NIGHT. LATEST HPC QPF HAS INCHED HIGHER AND NOW A LARGE AREA OF 3-INCH STORM TOTAL QPF IS FORECAST FOR THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVER BASINS. IT IS A BIT EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH... BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONE IS EVENTUALLY ISSUED. GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE SO HIGH FROM THE FREQUENT WINTER STORMS THAT IT IS MUCH EASIER THAN NORMAL FOR RUNOFF TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Gray Television, Inc. - Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 83506442