Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LATEST MODEL PACKAGE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/ OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF/ BEGIN TO SHOW THEIR DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND BRINGS A SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. MODELS SHOW SW FLOW ALOFT WITH MUCH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS SURFACE FEATURE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL ONLY INDICATE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.


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