Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY). EXTENDED PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED BY CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF GULF LOWS MOVING ACROSS REGION. IN THE WAKE OF TUES NIGHT`S EXIT OF GULF LOW...EXPECT A BRIEF RESPITE IN ACTIVE WX WED NIGHT. THEN... ELONGATED AND AMPLIFIED TROF EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST STATES WED NIGHT SHIFTS RAPIDLY EWD AND ENTERS GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH...ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH ASSOCD AND PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS TX ON THUR AND INTO MID-SOUTH ON FRI INITIATING WARM ADVECTION AND GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF IT AND ACROSS NRN GULF REGION. THIS TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND SHARPEN THE NEXT GULF LOW SCHEDULED TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT AND MOVE NEWD...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO OUR REGION THU AND FRI. ON SAT...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BRIEFLY PHASES WITH THE GULF SHORT WAVE AND MEANDERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE DEEPENING SOME ON SUNDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...RAIN WILL END BUT COOLER AIR AND WRAP AROUND COLD STRATO-CU CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUN DURING THE WEEKEND BUT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS CONCUR ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW SHIFTING IT SLOWLY NEWD ALONG LIFTING WARM FRONT AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST ON FRI AND TO CAROLINA COAST BY FRI EVE WITH RAIN SPREADING N/NE AHEAD OF FRONT AND ALONG LOW. HOWEVER...ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH THAN GFS AND THIS FAR IN ADVANCE FORMER TENDS TO OUTPERFORM THE LATER MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS LOW WILL HAVE A MORE NRN TRACK THAN TUES NIGHT`S LOW...THUS EXPECT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST QPF SHOWS SHARP NW-SE GRADIENT WITH MINIMAL QPF SE ALA TO 2 TO 4 INCHES TOTAL SE BIG BEND. THIS COULD GENERATE FLOODING CONCERNS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WX...MODELS STILL SHOW THAT EVEN GFS LOW TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MORE THAN COASTAL FL/ADJACENT WATERS INTO THE WARM SECTOR INTO OUR AREA (EURO KEEPS LOW OVER OFFSHORE WATERS)...WHICH MEANS THAT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AND THIS FAR OUT WILL KEEP TSTMS EVEN OUT OF WATERS. WILL GO WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THEN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THURS THRU FRI EVE...SMALL CHANCE FRI NIGHT AND NIL POPS SAT AND SUN. AHEAD OF LOW...MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (CLIMO AROUND 40) WED NIGHT...RISING TO 10-13 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THURS NIGHT AND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FRI NIGHT. IN WAKE OF LOW...MINS DROP TO AROUND CLIMO SAT NIGHT. MAX TEMPS AROUND CLIMO (LOW-MID 60S) THURS AND FRI DROPPING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SAT AND SUN.


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