Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY). A BROAD HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND OUR WEEKEND COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING US A SHOT OF COOL AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER LOWS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 30S FOR MON MORNING. BY TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT PATH OF THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON MAXIMUM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHERLY PATH WOULD KEEP CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS BELOW CLIMO. A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD MODERATE OUR TEMPS KEEPING THEM MORE ON TRACK WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. IT APPEARS RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS LOW WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER-MAKER WILL FORM AS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS THIS LOW OVER THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA PANHANDLES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE EURO TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. BOTH MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TIMING...BUT THE EXACT PATH WILL DETERMINE WHAT TYPE OF WEATHER WE CAN EXPECT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE LOW STAYS TO THE SOUTH...MUCH OF OUR REGION WOULD LIE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WARM MOIST AIR INTERACTS WITH THE WARM FRONT. A PATH MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WOULD YIELD BETTER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH A MORE CONVECTIVE MODE OF PRECIPITATION. IN BOTH SCENARIOS IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATH OF THE LOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WX CAN BE BETTER ADDRESSED. TEMPS WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


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