Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A LOWER AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE CONUS AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SIGNIFICANT ENERGY WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TIMING IS ALWAYS MORE OF A PROBLEM IN FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW SITUATIONS...AND THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND GIVEN THE RECENT FORECAST TRENDS WILL FAVOR A BLEND THAT IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WHILE DYNAMICS LOOK STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE FURTHER SOUTH THE LOW TRACKS THE MORE LIMITED WILL BE ANY NORTHWARD PENETRATION OF SIGNIFICANTLY UNSTABLE AIR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN OFFSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES. WILL INDICATE RAIN WITH SOME THUNDER. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING WITH IT MORE RAIN FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUR NEAR CLIMO...FALL BELOW CLIMO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALSO CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORMAL COLDER AREAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING.


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