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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

NEARLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPACTING OUR REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT OUTRUNNING THE ECMWF SOLUTION BY 12 TO 18 HOURS. FOR EXAMPLE...FRIDAY AT 18Z THE GFS PLACES THE SURFACE LOW NEAR SAVANNAH WITH THE SOUTHWEST TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW STILL BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ORLEANS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FASTER...IT SHOWS A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AT LEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST BIG BEND SATURDAY MORNING. THUS FOR NOW WILL PLACE A CHANCE POP FOR THESE ZONES AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT POP ELSEWHERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE DURING THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.


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