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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE BOTH CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS LOWER THAN THE LAST STORM. CURRENT QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 3 INCH TOTAL POSSIBLE. EVEN WITH THE LOWER QPF...SATURATED GROUNDS AND ELEVATED STREAMS WILL MAKE THIS AN EVENT THAT WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY. KINEMATICS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET AND 60-70KT MID LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AS CAPES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE UNDER 500. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG KINEMATICS...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS CERTAINLY WARRANTED.


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