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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...OTHERWISE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL CONSIST OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PLAINS...RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN STATES AND PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH A PLEASANT AND WARM SATURDAY. WILL BE ANTICIPATING A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS. 850MB TEMPS RISING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13C SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST BIG BEND). TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER (LOWER/MID 60S) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (ESPECIALLY FRANKLIN COUNTY) WITH FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH DECENT RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A BIT EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM...HOWEVER RESPECTABLE HEIGHT FALLS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER STORMS. GFS/ECMWF VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF A BRIEF BY DECENT SURGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVING UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO COMPARE WITH THE COLDER AIRMASSES EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE MONTH...A LIGHT FREEZE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY WEDNESDAY.


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