Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

MID LEVEL CYCLONE IS TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND EXTENDS NWWD TO THE SURFACE LOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WILL LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. 00Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WITH AN INVERSION AT 875 MB. THIS SURFACE BASED STABILITY WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME TO SEE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN. INITIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OUT OVER THE WATER AND WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN ONE STORM THAT MERITED A WARNING. AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND...SO WILL THE SEVERE THREAT. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. STORM TOTAL QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER WIDESPREAD AREAS...SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE FL BIG BEND. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS IN SE AL HAVE ALREADY SEEN 2 INCHES...SO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.


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