Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT BY WEDNESDAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER HEADING INTO THURSDAY. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD AND RESULT IN CALM WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS NOT ALL THAT DRY AT THIS TIME. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT IS INCREASED. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WHAT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IS WHETHER FOG FORMATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD...THUS LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE DROP TOWARD DAYBREAK...OR BE MORE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS...THUS ALLOWING THE COOLER LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FROST. FOR NOW...WILL FAVOR A PATCHY FOG SOLUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND KEEP THE MENTION OF ANY FROST CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE GEORGIA BORDER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS TYPICALLY ARE THE COLDEST IN RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENTS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WILL NOT SEE FROST. TUESDAY...

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...BUT IT WILL BE WARM (RELATIVELY) INLAND WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. WHILE THE FOG MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENTIRELY FORCED BY RADIATIVE PROCESSES...FOG TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ADDED ADVECTIVE COMPONENT DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COOL GULF SHELF WATERS. THUS...VISIBILITIES COULD EASILY DROP TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES.


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