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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF LOW...THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. ALL THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASHORE THE CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH A LOT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...BUT THE MODELS RARELY HANDLE THE LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES WHICH OFTEN OCCUR WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHAT OUR LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING...AS IT BRINGS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF OVER-RUNNING RAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE LOW. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES LOOK LOW AT 5 PERCENT OR LESS WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY POINT. AS USUAL...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE TREMENDOUS...BUT SURFACE CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NON- EXISTENT. LOW SUN ANGLE...UNUSUALLY COLD GULF SHELF WATERS...ABUNDANT OVER-RUNNING RAIN AND LOW STRATUS...AND AN UNFAVORABLE PRE- FRONTAL WIND TRAJECTORY WILL COMBINE TO HAMPER SURFACE INSTABILITY. IN FACT...NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS (FROM BUFKIT) SHOW A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE CAPE IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT BY THAT TIME THE DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY BE CAPPING MOST OF THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.


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