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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY). A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EL NINO PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS WARMING UP NICELY TO AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE STRING OF SUB- FREEZING NIGHTS WE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. BY MONDAY THE WEEKEND GULF LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE UNDERWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UNLIKE THE ARCTIC HIGHS OF LATE...THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE FROM THE TROPICS...SO WHILE FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY FLOW...WE WON`T BE SEEING COLD AIR PLUMMETING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AS WE HAVE RECENTLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BRINGS IT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MAINTAINS MORE OF A SOLID FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL OCCUR SO POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 30 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE TIMING/DURATION OF EVENT BECOME MORE CLEAR...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT`S TOO FAR OUT TO TELL WHETHER WE WILL SEE FREEZING OR NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION.


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