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Gulf Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST TREMENDOUS SURFACE WINDS (AROUND 45 KT) FOR SATURDAY...WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF...NAM...LOCAL WRF...AND SREF MEAN. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS...AND RAN THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL OFF THESE LOWER WIND SPEEDS. THUS OUR SEAS FORECAST IS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE NOAA WAVEWATCH...BUT STILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (JUST NOT GALE). THE INCREASE IN SURF MAY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. BECAUSE THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO WINDY...WE DO NOT TRUST ITS DERIVED STORM SURGE OUTPUT. WE EXPECT TIDES TO BE UP TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...AND PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING ADVISORIES.


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