Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... THE 00Z EURO AND 00Z GFS STILL ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE GULF LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID...THE EURO IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE EAST...CLOSER TO THE SOLUTION THE GFS HAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF LOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS POSITION THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE SO WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. BY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND KEEPS THE REGION DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST NEWS THAT THE LONG TERM FORECAST BRINGS IS MODERATED TEMPERATURES! IT APPEARS WE WILL BE BACK TO OUR TYPICAL JANUARY TEMPERATURES FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


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