WTVY  | Dothan, AL  | News, Weather, Sports

Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE HEIGHT RISES HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR WEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OUR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. HOWEVER... THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN LINE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION) WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING AN END TO OUR PROLONGED DRY PATTERN BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING PROGRESS AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE MIGHT HAVE AN EASIER TIME REACHING OUR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. OVERALL AIRMASS HAS CERTAINLY WARMED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...AND STILL A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO DROP OUR TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING LOW TEMPS TO BE QUITE AS COLD AS PAST NIGHTS...AND HARD FREEZE CRITERIA ARE LIKELY NOT TO BE MET AT MOST LOCATIONS. INSTEAD EXPECT MID/UPPER 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBANIZED LOCATIONS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FROST. ONLY CONCERN WILL THE TEMP FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ATTEMPTING TO INVADE OUR SKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OFTEN RESULTS IN A SLOWING OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS. FOR NOW BELIEVE THIS HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE TOO THIN IN ORDER TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR LOW TEMPS...AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY LARGE ADJUSTMENT TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. OF NOTE...SHOULD THE KTLH AIRPORT DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (EARLY THURSDAY MORNING)...IT WOULD BREAK A RECORD AT THAT SITE FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW FREEZING (13 DAYS !). IF THE RECORD IS BROKEN...IT SHOULD BE BROKEN BY ONLY ONE DAY...AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A TIGHTER GRADIENT... AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON EASTERLY WINDS DURING THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK UP NEAR NORMAL..WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60 UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Gray Television, Inc. - Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 81412492 - wtvy.com/a?a=81412492