Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE DEMISE OF THE LARGE SCALE COLD WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS AFFECTED THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A STRONG AMPLIFYING H5 TROUGH CARVING OUT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BUILD A MUCH MORE POTENT DEEP LYR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY. THEN A PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS WITH TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/TX INTO FRI BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE SRN/SERN US IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL KICKER UPPER LOW ENERGIES REACHING CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOWS A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT-FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF EL NINO WINTERS. IN RESPONSE...A LARGE AND VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE TX COAST ON FRIDAY AND MOVE ENE TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE HIGH TO LIFT ENE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE H5 RIDGE ALSO BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COMMENCE THEIR LONG AWAITED CLIMB.

THE MOVEMENT OF LOW WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASINGLY GOOD RETURN OF MOIST AND HUMID AIR FROM THE SOUTH PLUS ALLOWING FOR HIGHER CHANCE VALUES OF RAIN. AS LOW APPROACHED WINDS/GUSTS WILL ALSO NOTICEABLY INCREASE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST LOW NEAR TALLAHASSEE SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING SAT EVE AND THEN DEPARTING INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH WDLY SCT POPS ON FRI...A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SAT NIGHT. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS...MOST OR ALL THE WARM SECTOR (AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT) WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA (OR AT LEAST LAND AREA). THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF EL NINO SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULLED INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEX. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM EARLY SAT TO EARLY SUN. AS FAR AS TEMPS...OUR WARMUP WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO DEVELOP WITH HIGHS NOT REACHING THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND LONG NIGHTS...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZES (AT OUR NORMALLY COLDEST INLAND SITES) THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OF NOTE IS THAT THE CURRENT COLD SPELL OF TALLAHASSEE SUBFREEZING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 10 DAYS TODAY. THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE SUBFREEZING DAYS IS 13 DAYS IN LATE JAN AND EARLY FEB OF 1966. THE FORECAST IS FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPS TO CONTINUE THRU THURS MORNING WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD. THE BIG "IF" IS DAY 14 AND THIS WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL TIMING OF GULF LOW AND CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW FORECAST IS FOR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...I.E TLH MON IS 40 DEGREES. HOWEVER IF GULF LOW DEVELOPS SLOWER THEN WE MAY DROP TO BELOW 32 DEGREES AROUND MIDNIGHT (THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORN) BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND. STAY TUNED.


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