Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LOOKS LIKE A VERY COLD BEGINNING FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP THRU REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL FLOW COMMENCES AMPLIFIED... HIGHLIGHTED BY A TROUGH JUST OFF W COAST...NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE FROM W COAST TO PLAINS...TROUGH OVER NRN GREAT LAKES AN ANOTHER FULL AMPLITUDE ERN TROUGH WITH AXIS THAT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE ADJACENT WRN ATLC. SHORTWAVES /CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ON DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROUGH DEEPENING IT AND REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR THAT DRIVES SWD DEEP INTO GULF OF MEX AND SRN FL. SO THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE YIELDING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY. ALSO...VERY LOW MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AND VERY LOW H85 TEMPS ARE BOTH AROUND 4 STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT TO SEE RECORD LOWS AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI. THIS OUTBREAK WILL APPROACH BUT NOT LIKELY REACH THE DEC 1989 AND POSSIBLY THE JAN 1977 COLD OUTBREAKS ACROSS FLORIDA. THEN BY EARLY WORK WEEK...DEAMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BEGINS. THE DEEP ERN TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVE FURTHER SEWD AND OFFSHORE AS STACKED RIDGING BEGINS TO FURTHER BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS ENE OF FL COAST THRU TUES...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO ONSHORE WHILE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO WSW HERALDING A WARMING TREND. SUN NIGHT WITH BE COLDEST WITH INLAND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED. LOWS WILL INCH UP TO THE LOW-MID 20S MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE...THEN LOW 30S TUES NIGHT AND MID 30S WED NIGHT AND MID-UPPER 30S THURS NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO "REBOUND" ON MONDAY AND TUES WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE MID 50S..THEN TO AROUND 60 ON WED AND INTO THE LOW 60S ON THURS. AS FAR AS RAIN...MOISTURE INCREASES BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND DEVELOPS A LOW/WAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF BY WED. THIS LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THRU END OF WORK WEEK WEAKENING ERN SURFACE HIGH AND PUSHING IT INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS EWD MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ON THURS ALTHO MORE LIKELY FOR DAY 8. SO WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WRN CWA LATE THURS.


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