Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUED VERY COLD EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THRU SUN NIGHT. THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED... HIGHLIGHTED BY EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH. SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWD. SO..

IN WAKE OF MID WEEK REINFORCING COLD FRONT...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD AREA WITH MEAN LAYER MOISTURE REALLY DRYING OUT YIELDING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS/NIGHTS WILL BE FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT WITH COLDEST INLAND LOWS AROUND 20 EXCEPT INTO THE MID TEENS SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND 40S ON SUNDAY. HARD FREEZES ARE FORECAST FOR EACH NIGHT. BRISK WINDS WILL DROP COLDEST WIND CHILLS (SE ALA/SW GA) IN THE LOW TEENS AROUND SUNRISE SAT AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A RE-ENFORCING MID LEVEL ON SAT...STACKED RIDGING WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON. THE MINiMUM TEMPERATURES "REBOUND" TO THE UPPER 20S MON NIGHT AND THEN TO A "BALMY" LOWER 30S TUES NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE MID-UPPER 50S MON APPROACHING 60 ON TUES.

BIG QUESTION ON EVERY BODY`S MIND IS CHANCE FOR PRECIP. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX SHOULD ANY OCCUR. DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO THE WEST TO SET UP BRIEF OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD AND POSSIBLY A SMALL CHANCE LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR LATE FRI AFTN INTO EARLY SAT. ECMWF CONTS FURTHER NORTH IMPLYING A MIXED RAIN/SNOW EVENT ACROSS SERN CWA. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INCLUDING THE 850MB-700 MB LAYER AND THE 1000-850MB LAYER...THE 850MB 0 DEG ISOTHERM POSITIONS...ALONG WITH 1000-850MB RH AROUND 90% WILL BE JUST S/SE OF CWA. HOWEVER CANADIAN NOW JOINING GFS KEEPING BEST MOISTURE / OVERRUNNING S AND ESPECIALLY SE OF CWA. GFS IT SHOULD BE NOTED IS TRADITIONALLY SLOW AND WEAK IN DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PRECIP. RIGHT NOW OUR GA/ALA ZONES LOOK TOO DRY FOR PRECIP. SO THINK ANY CHANCE OF AREA WINTRY PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...WILL BE CONFINED TO ERN FL (I.E. JAX CWA) WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. GIVEN CHANGE IN CANADIAN MODEL AND CONT GFS SIGNATURES...WILL NOT MENTION ANY WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR EXTENDED.


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