Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

IT APPEARS THAT THE DYE HAS BEEN CAST AND WE HAVE ONLY TO WAIT FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SQUALL LINE SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED SOMEWHAT ACCORDING TO EARLIER ESTIMATES. RIGHT NOW...WE ESTIMATE 01 TO 02Z ARRIVAL IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...THAT IS...WALTON COUNTY...AND 11Z TO 12Z TO EXIT OUR EASTERN ZONES. COULD BE ALONG NIGHT FOR OUR CREW TONIGHT. HARD TO TELL HOW POTENT THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE TONIGHT AS MAIN ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. STILL...PRETTY GOOD JET STRUCTURE...LOW LEVEL JET OF 50- 60 KNOTS...BULK SHEAR OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS...AND DIFFLUENT UPPER JET COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. CLEARING COULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE...I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION OF A WEAK GULF LOW MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...RIGHT OR WRONG...I PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE GRIDS. THE ECMWF SHOWS MOISTURE BUT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CYCLOGENESIS UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 80096167 - wtvy.com/a?a=80096167
Gray Television, Inc.