WTVY  | Dothan, AL  | News, Weather, Sports

Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT FROM CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN WITH DRIER MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL MODEL INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE EURO SHOWS AN UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FORMING IN THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BRINGING A SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKER GULF LOW FORMING IN THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN PROPAGATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WOULD YIELD LESS TOTAL PRECIPITATION AS OUR AREA WOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. BOTH SOLUTIONS AGREE ON SURFACE LOW FORMATION BUT OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...SILENT 10% POPS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DEPENDING ON DEVELOPING GULF LOW. POPS WERE THEN INCREASED TO 20% TO 30% FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT TO DEPICT LIKELY PRECIPITATION PATTERN. 20% POPS WILL CARRY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AS SHOWN IN THE GFS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED CYCLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 30S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED SURFACE LOW AS WINDS SHIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH COOLER WINTER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Gray Television, Inc. - Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 80096097 - wtvy.com/a?a=80096097