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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT. FIRST...THE SHORTWAVE IN NEW MEXICO WILL BOTTOM OUT TOMORROW MORNING IN TEXAS ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ACROSS MONTANA. THE TWO IMPULSES APPEAR TO DO A FUJIWARA EFFECT AS THE FIRST MOVES NORTH AND THE OTHER DRIVES SOUTH...AND FINALLY...COMBINING INTO ONE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA ON FRIDAY. THE NAM IS SIMILAR. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT DISTURBING WITH FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE MAKING A BEELINE NORTHWARD. THIS SOLUTION WILL POSSIBLY BRING MORE SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. EACH MODEL IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS...WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS. AS TO CONVECTION...THE BULK OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO WEST OF OUR CWA. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE SUITABLE BULK SHEARS...50 KNOTS OR SO...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS. HAVE ADDED T+ IN THE GRIDS STARTING AT 00Z TOMORROW EVENING.


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