Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING IN ANOTHER RUSH OF COLD WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAKING FOR PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING IN SOME MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS BUT RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME...THUS SILENT 10% POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FROM THIS TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT REGARDING AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS IT OVER OUR AREA THROUGH 1200Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND THE LONG-TERM NATURE OF THE PREDICTION...WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10% POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOWS APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK SEVERAL NIGHTS NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 60 DEGREES. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN INCREASING BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.


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