Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FLATTENS TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT. OF COURSE...IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. ONE DAY SLOWER AND CHRISTMAS DAY COULD BE BE VERY WET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.


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