Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

DISCUSSION...00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR SAINT SIMONS ISLAND GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT WAS INTERESTING TO SEE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TODAY. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSED TALLAHASSEE IT WAS 71 DEGREES AT 4 PM WHEN PANAMA CITY WAS 49 DEGREES. BY 7 PM ET THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 48 DEGREES AT TALLAHASSEE. SURFACE DATA SHOWS A VERY LARGE AREA OF SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY GOOD SNOWFALL RATES REPORTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER AIR DATA AT KTAE SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED FRONTAL INVERSION JUST BELOW 900 MB. THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLY ABOVE 700 MB. THE 250 MB JET IS QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS 105 KT AT 250 MB...BUT NEARER TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET DOWN TOWARD TBW...135 KT AT 250 MB WAS MEASURED. THE RUC SHOWS THE CORE OF THE 250 MB JET REACHING 145 KT WHEN MOVING OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY MORNING. VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A TROF MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT IS HELPING TO PULL THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TROF OVER ILLINOIS IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEPER TROF MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES HAVE ENDED...SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER REMAINS A LITTLE TRICKY TO FIGURE OUT. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS NEARING THE MISS/AL BORDER AT 0130Z. TIME HEIGHTS GENERALLY ARGUE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...THOUGH THIS IS A LITTLE SUSPECT BASED ON THE LOCAL WRF. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO KEEP THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...BUT MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS FLORIDA WHERE THE AIRMASS MAY DRY OUT JUST ENOUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.


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