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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)... THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING THE H5 TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND CLOSING OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE POWERFUL SFC LOW...THE SAME GULF LOW THAT WILL BE IMPACTING OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING WHEN IT PUSHES OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AROUND THE SAME TIME THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES FLYING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BUT ATTM DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. THE RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FINALLY BREAKS DOWN BY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A ELONGATED TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST. BY LATE MONDAY THE POWERFUL CLOSED UPPER LOW GETS SWALLOWED BY THE TROF. THIS TROF ROTATES AROUND AND DEEPENS LATE ON TUESDAY...AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT OFF THE WESTERN SEABOARD. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS HAS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA. THE 16/12Z EURO MATCHES THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PRETTY WELL...BUT DOES NOT AMPLIFY THE TROF MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE 17/00Z GFS. AT LOWER LEVELS...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE GULF LOW IMPACTING OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THIS SFC LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT HUGS THE EAST COAST AND MOVES NORTHWARD. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THIS GFS HAS THE LOW DEEPENING TO 976MB AS IT TRAVERSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FURTHER OUT IN THE PERIOD...NOT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING OUR REGION DIRECTLY AS WE APPEAR TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT LOWER LEVELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS REGION COULD STAND A LESS ACTIVE PERIOD AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...AND WE WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A FEW DAYS TO DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS PRODUCES A LOW OVER MEXICO WHICH MOVES OVER THE GULF AND MOVES ONSHORE JUST WEST OF OUR REGION... WHICH COULD SPELL MORE TROUBLE WITH RAIN FOR THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT NOT ALL THE MODELS ARE AGREEING ON THE TIMING OF THIS LAST SYSTEM...NOR THE INTENSITY. THE 16/12Z EURO PUSHES THIS LOW OFF INTO THE MIDWEST AND DOES NOT HAVE IT IMPACTING OUR REGION AT ALL BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS BEGINS TO IMPACTS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. LATER IN THE PERIOD TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES LESS OF A FACTOR. LOWS SHOULD PLUNGE INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS. WE SHOULD STAY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO IMPACT US UNTIL THE CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON THEIR TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS A TOSS UP THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THEN PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN AROUND CHRISTMASTIME AS TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.


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