Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

AS WAS EXPECTED...THE WELL ADVERTISED SFC LOW IS CONTINUING TO FURTHER ORGANIZE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE COOL AND DRY SFC RIDGE STILL ENTRENCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO SOUTHERN NC...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE QUICKLY SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SE AL...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. STILL BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE ...DESPITE THE RECENT SOUTHERN TREND IN THE FCST LOW POSITION IN THE 18 UTC RUN OF THE GFS (AND SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BEST LIFT)...AS WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC RAINFALL WHICH SHOULD TRAVERSE MUCH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT QPF ESTIMATES AS IS...AND ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED ONCE THE 00 UTC MODEL CYCLE BEGINS TO ARRIVE. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE FCST APPEARS FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO REACT TO THE RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.


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