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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LOW WILL TRANSPORT MOIST/ UNSTABLE AIR MASS INCREASINGLY NEWD INTO FRIDAY. SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISENTROPIC/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER AND THE RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL MODEL ACCUMULATIONS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF QUESTION. IF THIS OCCURS...6 DAY TOTALS COME SATURDAY WILL BE RANGE UP TO 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SE AL AND SW GA. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH MAYY BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH OF FRONT...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWON ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...FLORIDA BIG BEND.


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