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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE THIS DEVELOPING LOW. LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL INDICATING THAT THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD TO MID ATLC STATES ON THURS THEN NOSING INTO GA ON FRI. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COMBINATION LIFTS FRONT NWD AS WARM FRONT. THE GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT TO FL/GA STATE LINE B4 FRI AFTN WITH LOW ASHORE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND DESTIN AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN ENE INTO SOUTHWEST GA EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SOUTH OF THIS TRACK AND INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING ASHORE SOMEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW THE WARM SECTOR TO CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND COUNTIES AND ADJACENT BIG BEND WATERS. A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS GULF COUNTY THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...THEN TO SOUTHEAST GA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PARENT COLD FRONT DRAGGED SEWD ACROSS MAINLY GULF WATERS ON FRI.


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