Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE FORTUNATELY BEEN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVE REACHED THE 10 INCH MARK OR BETTER. THIS HAS LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF FLOODING WITH MANY ROADS CURRENTLY IMPASSIBLE. SEVERAL RIVERS HAVE REACHED MODERATE LEVELS WITH A FEW AT OR AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AND STILL RISING. THE MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN TEMPORARILY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY (HI 60-65/LO 40-50). ANOTHER GULF LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS. THE ECMWF...GFS...NAM ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE TAKING AN EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF BY THE END OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN OVER OUR AREA COME THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WATERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


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