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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXTENDED BEGINS WITH THE GFS FINALLY FALLING IN LINE WITH THE EURO. MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BREAKING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL COLD SURGE WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONLY WAY TO TELL THE TIMING ON THIS SURGE IS BY THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A REAL PLUNGE SINCE YESTERDAY DROPPING 8F DEGREES IN 24 HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING AT KTLH. ALOFT...OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING IN THE WEST AND A COLD DEEP ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS PARKED IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COMBINATION OF ENERGETICS APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER WITH THE NEW GULF LOW. FIRST A SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN MEXICO GETS THINGS GOING ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BARRELING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SEEMS TO ARRIVE AT THE RIGHT TIME ON SUNDAY TO DEEPEN THE LOW OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. ALL IN ALL...OUR WEATHER APPEARS TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. I GUESS I`M NOT READY TO TAKE THE MEX SUGGESTION AS YET AND DROP THE TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS INTO THE MID 20S. WILL PROBABLY KEEP THEM AROUND 30-32. TEMPS MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S...AS THE GULF LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE RAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.


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