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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PUSHING INLAND BY THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT BEST LIFT AND FORCING WILL BE PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SE ALABAMA...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE RATHER AMPLIFIED H5/H2 TROUGH FROM NRN CANADA SEEN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD AND TREND TOWARDS A BROADER/FLATTER PATTERN BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SRN HALF OF CONUS. AT SAME TIME WE SEE EVIDENCE OF UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER WRN CONUS. STILL...SRN STREAM REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY ACTIVE THRU MUCH OF EXTENDED TO CONTINUE SENDING A SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES DOWNSTREAM TO GENERATE SURFACE WAVES LIFTING STALLED FRONT(S) BACK NORTH AND PUSHING COLD FRONTS INTO SE REGION IN A REPEAT OF RECENT EL NINO PATTERN. AT LOWER LEVELS...AS ABOVE TROUGH MOVES EWD...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LOCAL REGION EXITING CWA LATE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS S/CNTRL GULF LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS.

IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CONUS BRIDGING THE FRONT WITH A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW YIELDING A MODESTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. BUT...AS HIGH MOVES E OF CWA...AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM LOW...FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ONSHORE THURS/FRI. THIS LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LWR MS VALLEY TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT REACHING THE MID- ATLC COAST LATER ON SAT. INITIALLY THIS STRONGER LOW (WITH UPPER DYNAMICS FURTHER S THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM) WILL HELP LIFT STALLED GULF BOUNDARY BACK NWD FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN THURS AFTN AND EVE (ESPECIALLY SRN THIRD OF CWA) FOLLOWED BY GOOD CHANCE OF SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVERSPREADING CWA FRI-SAT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH CWA BY EARLY SAT AND EXIT RAPIDLY SEWD TO N/CNTRL FL BY SAT EVE AND SHOW MORE UPPER SUPPORT THAN EARLIER SYSTEM.

EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING SEWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT EXITING LOCAL REGION EXTENDED PERIOD COMMENCES...LINGERING 20 PCT POPS WED NIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT/LOW...NIL POPS THURS INTO EARLY FRI MORN...THEN AHEAD AND ALONG NEXT WX SYSTEM...HI SCT POPS FRI AFTN-FRI NIGHT DECREASING TO SCT SAT THEN ISOLD-WDLY SCT SAT NIGHT AND NO POPS ON SUN. AS FAR AS TEMPS...PERIOD BEGINS WITH MOISTURE/CLOUDS FROM EXITING COLD FRONT KEEPING MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT 8-13 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (CLIMO IS LOW 40S) WHILE MAX TEMPS ON THURS DROP TO LOW 60S OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO (CLIMO IN MID 60S). THEN...WITH COOL DRY AIRMASS BRIEFLY BUILDING IN...MIN TEMPS AROUND CLIMO THURS NIGHT BEFORE INCHING UP TO AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WX SYSTEM. IN WAKE OF STRONGER FRONT...INLAND MIN TEMPS DROP INTO UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY.


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