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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS SURFACE FRONT. GENERALLY THE LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE PROFILE...AND RESULTING BEST RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE...LOOK TO COME TOGETHER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR ZONES. HOWEVER DO EXPECT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT OVER OUR ZONES...WITH HIGHEST POPS (60-70%) ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL LIFT MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO BREAK OUT OF THE MORNING STRATUS DECK... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FLORIDA BORDER. DESPITE THE TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING QUITE WARM...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK...AND HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL SEND THE BEST LIFT EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND LIKELY TO SEE A BREAK IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM-FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MID AND EVEN UPPER 60S DEWPOINT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST MODIS SST HAVE OUR SHELF WATERS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE SHELF WATERS LOOK TO SET UP A DECENT CHANCE AT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME OF THIS SEA FOG TO ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER SUNSET.


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