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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT SWATH OF SYNOPTIC FORCING OVERSPREAD THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING. AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASES AFTER DARK...AND COMBINES WITH MODEST RRQ JET DYNAMICS...WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER WEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. AGAIN GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HOWEVER GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE LOW PASSES BY. THE FIRST WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND...AND THE OTHER CROSSING SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A BRIEF HEAVIER PERIOD OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE ZONE FROM PERRY DOWN TO CROSS CITY...RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS UNDER 1/2 INCH. WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALLING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER IN THE HOUSTON TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN ALOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO THE SNOW/MIX POTENTIAL FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE PACKAGE YOU LOOK AT...IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR AREA IS VERY LOW. PARTIAL THICKNESSES HOLD ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP HAS EXITED TO THE EAST. THESE VALUES GET CLOSE TO WHAT WOULD BE LOOKED AT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTHWEST OF DOTHAN LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A 1200 FOOT ABOVE FREEZING LAYER UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THIS LAYER WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH TO MELT ANY FLAKES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE JUST A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING OVERHEAD SHORTLY THEREAFTER. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW AND SHOULD END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING WORKING WEST TO EAST. RATHER CHILLY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0-4C. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST OF DOTHAN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN OUR FIRST POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FREEZE EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR NORTH DURING THE NIGHT WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE DOWN INTO THE NE GULF. THIS RIDGE EXTENSION SHOULD ALLOW OUR WINDS TO GO LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST DURING THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS/DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...AND ALREADY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL SET UP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR A COUPLE HOURS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUR INLAND PANHANDLE ZONES... SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GA ZONES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR A TIME. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS SHIFT...BUT FREEZE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS (IF NOT ALL) OF THE AREA WITH TONIGHT`S FORECAST PACKAGE. FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AFTER THE COLD START. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS... ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST.


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