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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(MONDAY-THURSDAY). MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SERN REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS COLD A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ONE ABOVE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS TIME WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BACK TOWARD AVERAGE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


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