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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... EVENING/TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT HELPING TO PUSH THE WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BAND OF SHOWER WILL STILL BE RATHER HEALTHY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT LIKELY BECOME MORE BROKEN AS IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER DARK. FRONT WILL EXIT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SE BIG BEND BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOW TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. TUESDAY...ATTENTION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WESTERN GULF WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A POTENT PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSING TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE LA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND BEGIN MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR AREA WILL START OUR WITH A DRY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WE SEE EARLY IN THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD BY INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS. DEEP LAYER OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND FROM THE PANHANDLE COAST TO SE AL AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN BIG BEND LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60s.

TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SCENARIO BECOMES QUITE COMPLEX TUESDAY EVENING AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL MEMBERS WITH THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND POSITION/TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT. BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...IN THIS CASE A BLEND BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE MS DELTA VICINITY...VERY IMPRESSIVE UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS UPGLIDE WILL BE AIDED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO LIKELY PRODUCE A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW POSITION. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE JUST WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP. A GOOD BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RUNS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM SOUTHERN AL INTO PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SW GA. WITHIN THIS ZONES...5 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPING THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA...BUT MAY ALSO SPREAD EAST TO GA AND THE WESTERN BIG BEND. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE A CONCERN IN THIS ZONE AS CONVECTIVE CELLS ENCOUNTER A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HAVE FOUND IN THE PAST THAT IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES ARE NOT ALWAYS NEEDED TO SUPPORT THIS THREAT.

WEDNESDAY...LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING A SQUALL LINE TO ORGANIZE ALONG THIS FRONT AND BRING A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE A LOT OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH. ALOFT.. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SPREADING A ZONE OF DECENT SYNOPTIC LIFT OVERHEAD...ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE. THIS FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE SQUALL LINE INTACT ACROSS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL ENCOUNTER 50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (PLENTY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS)...AND NO LACK OF LOWER LEVEL WIND ENERGY. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BUT THEN QUICKLY END AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO OUR EAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. FINALLY LETS CONSIDER THE COASTAL IMPACTS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE COASTLINE. LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY 25-40 KNOTS WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LARGE SURF ALONG THE PANHANDLE BEACHES AND ALONG SAINT GEORGE ISLAND. THIS SURF WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH EROSION AND EVEN WASH-OUT SOME VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADS. FROM WAKULLA COUNTY EASTWARD...THE PUSH OF WATER INTO THE BAY IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN 5 TO 7 FOOT STORM TIDE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH (CFWTAE) FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING SITUATION.


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