Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

ANTICIPATE A GENERALLY POP FREE FCST UNTIL SUN NIGHT OR MON AT THE EARLIEST...AND ONLY IF THE 00 UTC SOLUTION OF THE GFS IS CORRECT AND THE EARLIER 12 UTC EURO IS INCORRECT. HOWEVER ...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE BALL GAME...THERE IS A NEW POTENTIAL PROBLEM THAT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH...AND THAT WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR SOME VERY LOW TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING (WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR IDEAL...DESPITE RISING 850 MB TEMPS). I`M NOT SURE IF THIS HAS EVER HAPPENED BEFORE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR CWA...BUT SOME OF THE RAW MEX GRIDS WOULD ACTUALLY SKIP RIGHT OVER A FREEZE...DIRECTLY TO A HARD FREEZE ON SATURDAY MORNING! AM OBVIOUSLY NOT READY TO GO THIS FAR OUT ON A LIMB AT THIS TIME FRAME...BUT A POSSIBLE LONG DURATION RADIATIONAL FREEZE IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR ...WITH AN ADVECTION FREEZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF SE AL AND THE NW CORNER OF SW GA. AFTER LOADING THE RAW GFS 40 MODEL OUTPUT (WHICH LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT) WILL LIKELY USE A BLEND OF THIS WITH THE MEX AND GRIDDED MOS AS A STARTING POINT. ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FCSTS FROM THE NATIONAL WX SERVICE...AS A CHANGE IN LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN EITHER DIRECTION COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUTDOOR PLANTS AND EVENT PLANNING.


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