Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SAT THROUGH WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY MONDAY MORNING A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DROP ALL THE WAY TO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY...SLIDE EAST THROUGH LA AND THEN LIFT NE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS PLACES THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI 12Z MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH LA. SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRANSLATES INTO ALABAMA. THE LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY DRAGGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THE 12Z EURO SOLUTION CONTINUES TO SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THIS COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT KEEP THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.


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