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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)... GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULTING IMPACTS ON THE PATTERN FURTHER NORTH. PURELY FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WILL NOT BE DEVIATING MUCH FROM THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER... DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE FORECAST IS OF LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO IN ITS WAKE WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OR WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING WED/THU. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST GRIDS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS AND KEEPING THE MAIN INFLUENCES TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF BRINGS THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND WOULD SET UP A WET PATTERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS/ECMWF THEN BOTH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


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