Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE OUTSET OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST WILL CLEARLY BE THE MOST CHALLENGING OF THE PERIOD...AS WE WILL ALMOST IMMEDIATELY BE DEALING WITH A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL BE DIGGING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS BY SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF EACH MODEL HAS IMPROVED. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF GFS ALREADY HAS IT REACHING THE LA BORDER BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES...WITH A VERY SIMILAR FEATURE IN THE ECMWF ABOUT 12 HRS LATER. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN LIKELY BREAKING OUT RAPIDLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WOULD CLEARLY IMPACT THE FSU/MARYLAND FOOTBALL GAME IN TALLAHASSEE WHICH IS SET TO BEGIN AT NOON EST (17Z). WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HOWEVER...THE RAIN WOULD PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE GAME (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)... WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...AM EAGERLY AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF TO DETERMINE IF ANY TIMING CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED. UPDATE...THE 00Z ECMWF RUN HAS NOW ARRIVED AND LOW AND BEHOLD IT IS GRADUALLY CONVERGING TOWARDS THE GFS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE MAIN UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE NOW IS THE ONSET ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WHICH IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE GFS. THEREFORE...AM NOW QUITE A BIT MORE CONFIDENT WITH RAMPING UP POPS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WE SHOULD HAVE FAIR WEATHER RETURNING AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHICH ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT IN BOTH GLOBAL MODELS...SO WILL LIKELY PLAY IT ON THE SAFE SIDE FOR NOW.


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