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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE KICKER SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BRING THIS ENERGY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HOWEVER...ONCE IT APPROACHES THE NW GULF...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE EURO KEEP ENOUGH ENERGY IN THE SRN PART OF THE TROUGH TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NW GULF FRI MORNING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EWD ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST AS THE TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THE SYSTEM THEN LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NE SAT NIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A MUCH LESS ENERGETIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE GULF AND NEVER DEVELOPS A GULF LOW. INSTEAD...WE SEE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN TX FRI THAT EDGES SLOWLY EWD. SINCE WE HAVE SEEN THE GULF LOW SOLUTION FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS NOW IN THE EURO...WE WANT TO GIVE AT LEAST SOME WEIGHT TO THAT MODEL AND DID THIS BY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRO FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING. SUN LOOKS DRY. THEN WE LOOK TO THE W FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.


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