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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO COMMENCE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER ROCKIES AND RIDGE DOMINATING SOUTHEAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN ERN SEABOARD INTO NW GULF OF MEX. THIS CREATES WEDGE LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND ASSOCD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN COULD IMPACT NRN GA ZONES. BY EARLY MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EWD REACHING TX BY EVE. THEN...ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING TROUGH TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING... THEN HEADING NORTH WITH UPPER LOW INTO NE STATES ON THURS. CONVERSELY GFS CONTINUES SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH/LOW MEANDERING OVER THE PLAINS BEFORE HEADING NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE WORK WEEK. EITHER WAY...THIS SHIFT WILL FLATTEN THE ERN UPPER RIDGE AND SHIFT IT EWD THRU PERIOD. REGARDING SURFACE REFLECTION...BOTH SYSTEMS REMOVE MUCH OF UPPER DYNAMICS FROM IMPACTING LOCAL REGION. WITH EITHER MODEL...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF LOCAL AREA MOVES EWD THRU WORK WEEK ALLOWING FOR GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND VEERING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND MORE ESE ORIENTATION OF STEERING FLOW... FRONT REACHES LOCAL AREA ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED WITH NARROW RAIN BAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD IN ITS WAKE. IF GFS VERIFIES... W-E ORIENTED FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ON TUES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BEFORE WASHING OUT. EITHER WAY...DYNAMICS TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE WX. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE PAST FEW RUNS. SO WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS BUT WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN USUAL. WILL GO WITH NIL POP SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED..THEN WDLY SCT-TO SCT REST OF PERIOD. INLAND MIN TEMPS WILL COMMENCE AROUND CLIMO SUN NIGHT (MID-UPPER 40S) THEN WITH VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT MINS GRADUALLY RISE TO LOW-MID 50S TO ABOVE CLIMO THRU TUES NIGHT. INLAND MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO IN UPPER 70S MON (CLIMO IS 70-72) THEN DROP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY WED AS FRONT WITH ASSOCD CLOUDS APPROACH.


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