WTVY  | Dothan, AL  | News, Weather, Sports

Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO COMMENCE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL REMNANTS OF IDA LOW WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE... MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER WRN CONUS WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS TO DOMINATE SOUTHEAST OVER REST OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NW OF LOCAL REGION AND THE LACK OF ANY COLD AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IN SHORT AN IDEAL WEEKEND SETTING UP. BY EARLY MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EWD. ASSOCD LOW EJECTS FROM DESERT SW NEWD INTO CNTRL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCD SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE ERN UPPER RIDGE AND SHIFT IT EWD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF LOCAL AREA MOVES EWD ALLOWING FOR GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND VEERING WINDS. BUT...THEN MEDIUM RANGE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE. ECMWF TAKES LOW ON MORE ESE TRACK WHILE GFS FAVORS A MORE ELY TRACK. BOTH BRING A FRONT TO CWA STARTING SOMETIME LATE TUES INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WITH MORE ESE TRACK OF UPPER LOW...ECMWF IS FASTER AND GIVES FRONT A MORE FAVORABLE SW-NE ORIENTATION RATHER THAN MORE W-E ORIENTATION OF GFS...THE FORMER FAVORS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES. EITHER WAY...UPPER DYNAMICS LIKELY TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE WX. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HRS AGO...CONFIDENCE IN LATER PART OF OF EXTENDED STILL ON LOW SIDE. WILL GO WITH NIL POP FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUES..THEN WDLY SCT-TO SCT REST OF PERIOD. INLAND MIN TEMPS WILL COMMENCE AROUND CLIMO SAT NIGHT (MID-UPPER 40S) THEN WITH VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT MINS GRADUALLY RISE TO LOW-MID 50S OT ABOVE CLIMO THRU TUES NIGHT. INLAND MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO IN UPPER 70S SUN-MON (CLIMO IS 70-72) THEN DROP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY WED AS FRONT WITH ASSOCD CLOUDS APPROACH.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Gray Television, Inc. - Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 69918987 - wtvy.com/a?a=69918987