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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALL REMNANTS OF IDA WILL BE WELL REMOVED WITH LOW OFF CAROLINA COAST AND LOCAL AREA IN DRY SLOT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE... SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. DURING SATURDAY THE LOW WILL GET A GOOD PUSH WELL OFFSHORE AS THE MID/UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND HEADS EASTWARD. THIS WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT LAST FEW CLOUD REMNANTS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER LOCAL REGION AND THE LACK OF ANY COLD AIRMASS BEHIND FROM REMNANT IDA LOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CROSSING TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND TIMING ECMWF SLOWER WITH PUSHING UPPER TROUGH EWD AND IN DRAGGING COLD FRONT SWD THUS...CONFIDENCE IN DAY 6 AND ESPECIALLY DAY 7 FORECAST IS QUITE LOW. WILL GO WITH NIL POP FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT..THEN WDLY SCT- TO SCT ON TUES. INLAND MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN LOW-MID 50S OR ABOVE CLIMO (MID-UPPER 40S). INLAND MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO IN UPPER 70S SAT-MON (CLIMO IS 70-72) THEN DROP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO ON TUES AS FRONT WITH ASSOCD CLOUDS APPROACH.


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