Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 00 UTC RUN OF THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE EXIT OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA FROM THE CWA A BIT...IT SHOULD STILL BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE VERY NICELY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH OR CRACK THE 80 DEGREE MARK OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR...WHICH SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES OR MORE WARMER THAN CLIMO OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN ALSO FITS WELL WITH THE EARLIER 12 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF...SO UNLESS THERE ARE SOME SURPRISE CHANGES ON IT`S 00 UTC RUN...THE FCST SHOULD BE IN GREAT SHAPE THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...SO FOR NOW...WILL ONLY PLAN ON INTRODUCING 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS TIME.


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