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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AND FAIR WEATHER. OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT WARMER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE GUIDANCE HAS COME UP A FEW DEGREES...PERHAPS DUE TO THE SURFACE WINDS NOT BEING COMPLETELY CALM AND/OR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF IDA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEY BOTH SHOW WHAT WILL PROBABLY BECOME TROPICAL STORM IDA AGAIN BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM ON MONDAY...AND TRANSITIONING TO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. IN FACT THE F.S.U. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM FOR THE GFS 12 UTC GFS SHOWS IDA EVENTUALLY BECOMING COLD CORE IN THE GULF. ALTHOUGH IDA POSES LITTLE IF ANY DIRECT THREAT TO OUR AREA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WILL STILL LIKELY AFFECT US AS A NON- TROPICAL LOW WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...BUT THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THIS REGION UNTIL TUESDAY.


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